DV 2024 cut-off numbers Issue: We are now aware of the cut-off number that have been established in the DV 2024 program for the month of May 2024, as published in the Diversity Visa Bulletin For April 2024.
What those cut-off numbers have done is, they have established fear in the minds of so many diversity visa applicants, and that is the case because of two reasons.
The first reason is that most applicants expected the cut-off number for their region to go beyond where they were actually established for the month of May. And then in addition to that, some people has already established what they believe will be the final cut-off numbers in the DV 2024 program. Accordingly, that was based on the DV 2024 CEAC data.
Note: The CEAC data or the data of a DV program is not the only factor that determines the final cut-off numbers of that program. There are other factors that could override the data, and that have been seen different times. So anyone who limits himself to the data of the program to determine what the final cut-off numbers will have one of these three problems.
The first problem that such a person could have is that they may be new to the diversity visa program. The second problem that such a person may have, is that they base their reasoning more on theory than on what happens in practice. If that is not the case, then such a person does not learn from past experience. So it is either one of those three problems that such a person, a person who bases their reasoning only on the data has.
There are other factors that could play a part in determining the final cut-off numbers in the Diversity Visa Program:
The first of those factors that could influence the final cut of numbers in the diversity visa program is the approach that is taken by those who are in charge of running the program. What does this mean? Data in the diversity visa program is important. In case those who are running the program have a certain approach, that approach is going to override what the data is suggesting.
A notable instance was the end of the DV 2023 program. When the data was showing that they had reached the 55,000 visas to be issued out, those who were running the program were still sending out interview notifications to applicants. Was it the right thing to do? No, it was not the right thing to do, but it was what was done. So not always what the data suggests, not always what should happen ends up happening.
Sometimes, the approach that is being applied by those who are running the program could overrun what should happen, could overrun what the data are suggesting. That is one thing that you must get clear as a diversity visa applicant.
Another factor that could influence the final cut-off numbers in the diversity visa program is policy. The movements in the diversity visa cut-off numbers are a very effective way of implementing policy. Let’s take this example, In case the State Department wants a certain number of applicants to be interviewed at a certain time during the fiscal year. They don’t have to go through any difficulty. They will simply play with the numbers, play with the number of the region concerned, and they get what they want.
If, for example, they want to reduce the number of applicants from a specific region, all they need to do will be to keep the number of that region low. At the end of the day, many applicants from that region will not be interviewed, and that policy will be implemented. Their goal will be achieved.
On the other hand, in case they want a high number of applicants from a certain region, all they need to do is to push the numbers further. They are going to get so many applicants current, and those applicants will end up being interviewed, and they get what they want.
So, considering only the data to draw conclusions as it relates to the final cut-off numbers in the diversity visa program is not an effective way of getting to know the final cut-off numbers. Any of those other factors above could overrun what the data is saying, and what will happen will not be in line with what the data suggests it originally.
Based on past experience, in case you have been following a diversity visa program, you will realize that the data is not the only factor that affects the determination of the final cut-off number.
There is another reason why you cannot wholly rely on the data in the current context of the diversity visa program, when it comes to determining the final cut-off number in this year’s program. Next post will expose other reasons to you.
But this was just to say to you that data in the current context of the diversity visa program is not the only factor that could influence the determination of the final cut-off number. Look out for that other post which exposes the next reason why you cannot wholly rely on data in the current context of the diversity visa program.
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